Four years ago today I published a blog on 2016 election night predicting that Trump would win the election because of what I referred to then as ‘The Silent Right’. 

‘The Silent Right’ were people who had become disenfranchised with conventional politics, and as a result, started adopting more conservative-leaning views using Trump as their medium to turn their back on the ruling political class or ‘The Swamp’ as he loved to refer to it as.

The reason they were called ‘Silent’ was because we had entered a dangerous day and age that anyone with non-mainstream views was labeled as xenophobic, stupid and wrong. Thus, ‘The Silent Right’ were not those taking part in Trump rallies, wearing MAGA hats or getting into petty political arguments on Facebook with their old high school friends, but the sort of people who kept silent about their opinions, even perhaps sharing a joke at Trump’s expense among liberal friends, until the anonymity of the election ballot, when their sheer size and power was revealed propelling Trump to victory.

When I wrote the prediction four years ago, I like to think I was one of very few that gave Trump a chance of winning. I even shied away from sharing it with many out of fear of looking silly if I got it completely wrong. In fact, most polls gave Clinton close to a 90%+ chance of winning.

So while I am not a supporter of Trump, I would be lying if I didn’t admit I even impressed my 26 year old self in being one of the few that got it right and almost chuckle when I see ‘The Silent Right’, now regularly referred to as ‘The Silent Majority’ in mainstream media and by Trump himself, almost as if they read my blog and copied me (Ok, they definitely didn’t). Although I must say, I never said ‘The Silent Right’ was a majority, only that there were enough to say the election in favor of Trump, and there were.

After a whirlwind four years, it only seems tradition that I write a blog attempting to predict the outcome of the 2020 election too, but first I must vent. 

As a moderate liberal in the US on a work visa, it should not be surprising to you that my views align more closely with the democrats. Yet, ‘disappointed with them’ is an understatement. They may be the most strategically incompetent party I have ever seen and if they lose this election, they can only blame themselves as there have been zero lessons learned from the 2016 election. I am pretty open-minded and happy to critique my own side and the Dems need a lot of it.

With that out the way, here is the prediction I know you have all been waiting four years to hear (insert hypothetical winky face here….)

Up until the Presidential debates, I predicted another Trump victory, probably by a higher margin than 2016. The Democrats had made zero progress since 2016 and learned nothing from their mistakes back then:

• The candidates for nomination cannibalized the party, brutally attacking each other with too much venom giving Trump harmful ammunition to use later on in the form of “Even your democrat colleagues said you were wrong/incompetent!” 

• I felt Democrat Party leaders unfairly elevated Biden to the nomination because they felt he had the best chance against Trump and in doing so, very much alienated Bernie/Warren supporters who had already experienced the same in 2016

• I felt Biden was the wrong choice, he was gaffe-prone, living off the Obama legacy and had too many hypocritical moments in his career to come across as sincere in his views. As fragile an issue it was, I felt he chose the wrong strategy of keeping silent during the riot violence and calls to defund/abolish police in the hope of not seeming to contradict his left-wing supporters, but by keeping silent, further alienated middle grounders who are key to the election.

• I felt the Democrats and Biden had made no progress appealing to ‘The Silent Right’ and undecided voters, choosing to play Trump’s game of exaggerating and generalizing everything, name-calling and turning the election into “Don’t vote for him because of x,y,z”,  rather than “Vote for me because of our policies that will improve your life by x,y,z”. After all, appealing to liberals only would not be enough. They needed new voters and to steal Republican votes (in swing states) and I did not see it happening. Not a single person I knew had changed their voting intention from 2016.

Then the pandemic happened, and we don’t need to go into detail about America’s subpar handling, which had me start to reconsider my prediction. This prediction was officially turned on its head after the first two Presidential debates.

I now predict a Biden victory in the 2020 election. Let me elaborate.

The Democrats won’t win because they appealed to enough 2016 Trump supporters. They have not and in fact, they have been pretty awful appealing to anyone other than traditional liberals. 

Biden will pull off a victory due to the record voter turnout this election with most of the incremental voters voting for the Democrats, pushing enough swing states from red to blue. 

In other words, the Democrats haven’t done anything particularly well, Trump has handed this to them on a plate. Why do I think this?

• The pandemic. This election will come down to a referendum on Trump’s performance rather than whether voters believe in Biden. As my attorney friend Sean Park told me, “Elections are very much a question of ‘what have you done for me lately?’” and with the economy in tatters and society more divided than ever, there are many reasons for anyone to vote against Trump and look for another direction, even if, as many argue, he is not responsible for these issues (humans are naturally irrational and feel the need to blame something for issues even if the issue was unavoidable).

• Biden is nowhere nearly disliked as much as Hillary Clinton was. Yes, he is showing signs of aging which rightly brings about questions of his fitness for office. And yes, people may hate his policies, but no one really hates Biden himself with the same passion they hated Hillary Clinton. Those who said “I could never vote for Hillary” are more likely to not say “I could never vote for Biden”

• Trump’s performance in the first two debates showed his worst qualities, regularly interrupting the moderator, showing zero empathy for COVID victims and shouting generic phrases like “You lost the radical left!” and “I brought Big 10 Football back!” rather than putting forward arguments with actual facts and concrete policy. For the undecided voters watching, they were more likely to choose Biden after that, who in turn described a concrete plan for healthcare and used concrete simple messages like “If you earn under $400K, you wont have your taxes increased” that are likely to resonate with the middle class. Trump did improve significantly in the final debate performance and probably won that one. Is it possible that saved his re-election bid? Yes. But I feel it was too little too late.

Overall, the push to vote and to vote early has been bigger than ever before, especially on social media allowing voters more ways to share, connect and inform. 

It is hard to open an app on your phone without a message reminding where, how and when to vote and with so many people stuck at home on their devices, the reminders are so constant, it has almost created a pressure vacuum to vote and to vote early. 

We are certainly going to see a record voter turnout this election and the Democrats should win thanks to these incremental voters. Whether any election result is accepted by the other side however, is unlikely and I am not looking forward to the aftermath either way.

If the Democrats win, they have Trump to thank. If they lose, they have themselves to blame. 

Regardless of the result, this has been a pretty depressing and hostile few years. I would remind everyone that there are good and bad on all sides and to engage, befriend and talk to people that have differing views to your own. This growing idea that one view is good and right and the other is bad and wrong has contributed to the tension and divide. Just remember, our views and beliefs are shaped by our life experiences and had you lived the life of someone on the other side, you may have their exact view and detest your current one. More empathy, understanding, perspective and dialogue from both sides will go a long way into repairing society.

Right, enough about me. I’ve given you my election prediction, now I want to hear yours.