It’s that time once again. Every four years, for the last three elections, I’ve written a blog on Election Day giving my personal prediction on who will win. I’m two for two on correct predictions so far, so here’s my attempt to make it three for three, although this one is impossible to predict.

Funnily enough, after writing regularly when I created this blog site about ten years ago, I haven’t actually posted on this website since my prediction on the 2020 election. Apologies; life got the better of me, and I couldn’t write as often as I’d like for the whopping five views a year this website gets…

But before we dive in, wow. I didn’t think the bar could get lower when it comes to presidential candidates, but 2024 has given us new (low) levels. Not that the UK or other countries are better, but a Trump vs. Kamala race is pretty much a contest to see who has convinced voters they’re less incompetent than the other. And their VP picks aren’t much better.

For those who know me, saying I generally dislike politicians is an understatement. In general, I find them to be the worst kind of people. They can’t answer a question directly, admit when they’re wrong, or stand for anything other than what they think will get them votes at that moment. They’re constantly hypocritical and insincere. I don’t think I could generalize against any other profession as much as I do with politicians, because I see this pattern everywhere, in every country—not just the U.S.

It’s as if you have to prove you’re fake, believe in nothing, avoid admitting you’re wrong, change opinions based on what’s popular, and master gaslighting to become a politician. Admitting faults, showing a change of mind, saying “I don’t know,” or being transparent seems alien to these people.

Okay, let’s talk about the candidates.

Kamala Harris

How on earth is she even the candidate? So many random cards had to fall in her favor to make this happen. Let’s not forget she dropped out in 2020 because she was one of the most unpopular candidates, and somehow she’s the nominee after a pretty poor performance as VP, where data showed her as one of the least popular VPs in a long time. She lacks the credentials for this position, and trust me, if it had gone to a vote, she wouldn’t be here. She embodies many—if not all—of the characteristics that make people distrust politicians.

The hypocrisy is constant: she votes for policies that completely contradict her past views, and the worst part is, she doesn’t even give a reason why! Changing your mind is fine, but be transparent. Don’t gaslight and pretend you’ve held these views all along. She was against fracking, then suddenly for it. Known for putting people in jail for minor weed offenses, now she’s pro-legalization. She opposed border control, and now it’s her top priority (how convenient, so close to election time). She advocated for a gun ban, yet now she’s a gun owner. On top of all that, she has an infuriating tendency to dodge simple questions and deflect. People want straight talk and transparency, yet she projects a fake persona, making us wonder who she truly is behind closed doors. Data showed she was unfavorable among Black men, and magically, the next day, she rolled out new policies specifically for them. Quite the coincidence, right?

Most infuriating was her response on Sunday when asked about her vote on a California crime bill. Her response? “I won’t disclose how I voted because the election is close.”

What!? You’re vying for the office of the most powerful person in the world, and you don’t think it’s relevant for people to know your stance on a crime policy? It felt like a comedy sketch—ridiculous and frankly, insulting to the American people.

Of course, we know why she won’t say: she wants to appeal to voters on both sides. “What you don’t know can’t hurt you,” right?

This is as disingenuous as running pro-Israel ads in Jewish-American communities and pro-Palestine ads in Arab-American areas that directly contradict each other. Pathetic.

Trump

Not that Trump is any better. It’s both a mystery and totally understandable why Trump has done so well politically and remains relevant. People are cynical about politics, and Trump came in as the anti-politician. His unfiltered, blunt approach was so different from the typical polished, insincere politician that he appealed to those craving change. Sadly, he may not be so different from the politicians he claims to oppose.

Trump isn’t the legendary businessman, negotiator, or smooth talker many think he is. Almost everyone who’s worked closely with him has fallen out with him. He’s narcissistic, stubborn, and unwilling to admit when he’s wrong—not fit for office. It’s strange that Trump supporters don’t see that if he could betray them for his own benefit, he’d do it without hesitation. Look at Trump University and the countless business disputes he’s been involved in. When someone shows you who they are, believe them. His supporters don’t, or maybe they just seem him as the better of two evils.

Trump’s political career rebounded after his refusal to accept the 2020 results nearly ended it. He can thank the Democrats for exaggerating his every fault, which only solidified support from his base, and Republicans for failing to present a better option.

Honestly, Trump has made a bit of a mockery of the GOP. Many who denounced him after the last election—swearing “Never Trump again”—now endorse him, including his own VP, JD Vance. Typical politicians—whatever advances their careers and gets votes, I suppose.

The Prediction

Trump did well to gain the support of RFK Jr., Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Joe Rogan. Whether you agree with them or not, they’re undeniably influential and appeal to people who might not typically vote for Trump.

Kamala Harris has plenty of celebrity endorsements, but aside from Taylor Swift, I think most people are tired of celebrities trying to relate to ordinary folks. So I’m unsure how much this will help. The Democratic Party, including Barack Obama, has rallied around her, securing much of the base and reducing the number of Democrats who would have switched sides if Biden were the nominee.

As always, it will come down to a few thousand voters in a few key states. So who will win?

The election is closer to a 50/50 coin flip than ever before, and the reality is, I’m not sure—and anyone who claims they are is lying. I think pollsters, having learned from the errors of 2016, are more accurate than before, which means the result could go either way. It could be a narrow Trump win, a Trump landslide, or a narrow or even a landslide win for Kamala.

My Prediction:

I think, and not confidently, a narrow win for Kamala Harris may happen for a few reasons:

1. Trump has not addressed abortion concerns adequately, which will likely drive a high turnout of young women voting against him. This may be his Achilles heel. “Giving the decision to the states” has not resonated with centrist and leftist voters and Kamala and her advocates have done a good job of putting this in the faces of voters in their marketing campaigns
2. Kamala has done a decent job of distancing herself from the Biden administration without throwing him under the bus, while positioning herself as a “new” administration that will bring change – even if this is not true.
3. Many still can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump. Despite venting their frustration to the heavens and dissatisfaction at an all time high with regards to the current state of the country, when it comes to actually checking off that box that says ‘Donald J Trump’, they won’t be able to get themselves to do so

Of course, I could am 50% likely to be wrong. If Trump wins—possibly even by a landslide—it will likely be due to voters’ frustrations with the current state of the country, casting a protest vote for change. Even more so perhaps, it will also be because Latino and Black men, whose data shows are moving at a high rate than ever from voting democrats to Republican, have switch parties at such a high rate that it more than offsets the increase in your female democrat voters showing up for Harris.

Nothing will surprise me in this election. But America, you can do so much better than these two—wow.